I chose the Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF (VWRL) as it represents all the stocks in the world. Below shows how prices have changed since inception.
I then plotted the prices into a table (left-most) and calculated the number of shares received using a dollar-cost-averaging strategy (middle). For the market timing strategy, I will hold cash and only deploy when the stock price decreases compared to 12 months ago (right-most).
After 29 quarters, the dollar-cost-averaging approach yields 89 more shares than the market timing strategy. Value of scenario 1 comes out to 2,364 shares x $84.88/share = $200,656 while scenario 2 comes out to 2,275 shares x $84.88/share + $5,000 cash = $196,100.
Given these and as counter-intuitive (to me) as it seems, we would be a lot better following a simple strategy instead of wrecking our brains to time to market. Happy to hear alternative views!
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